DSNews: Nearly Half of Economists See Double-Dip Before Year End

A recent article by Carrie Bay for DSNews published on March 24th, 2011 stated a survey has found that nearly half of economists see a double-dip in home prices happening before year-end. 111 economists and real estate experts were polled and none of them foresee property values recovering for at least five years. The following is an excerpt from this article,

“The survey was conducted by New Jersey-based MacroMarkets, which was founded by Robert Shiller, real estate sage and namesake of the closely-watched Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

‘Overall, the sentiment among our expert panel regarding the U.S. housing market outlook continues to deteriorate,” Shiller said. “Now they are expecting only a weak recovery, and even that is not until 2013.’

Shiller added, ‘This uninspiring view must be influenced by the persistently weak market fundamentals – high

unemployment, supply overhang, an unabated foreclosure crisis, and constrained mortgage credit.’ ”

Just a few months ago, in December 2010, a similar survey showed only 15 percent of economists predicting a double-dip. Terry Loebs, MacroMarkets managing director gives insight in the DSNEws article,

“Loebs believes many more experts are now projecting a double-dip after witnessing what he describes as “the double-dead cat bounce” that came in the wake of expired government stimulus programs, namely the homebuyer tax credits.

The half of the panel that’s forecasting a new low for home values may not be too far off base.

Loebs notes that after weak performance in the last quarter of 2010, actual home prices at the national level are now less than 1 percent away from establishing a new post-crash low, and several firms that conduct regular price studies have already warned that the numbers are edging dangerously close to double-dip territory.”

Full Article

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